Football Betting Strategies

If you do a web search for “football betting strategies” several million results are returned. You’ll be promised the best football betting strategies. Or strategies guaranteed to work. You can read through articles or watch videos on YouTube.

However, your first strategy should be this: don’t fall for it!

If you want to bet smartly, you can follow some tips that can give you an advantage. We’ll get to these further down in the article. Betting smartly also means, not falling for betting systems.

What are betting systems?

One of the top results on Google when you search for football betting strategies will list half a dozen betting systems and forward you to an article that explains them.

You’ll find betting systems such as:

  • Arbitrage Betting
  • Kelly Criterion
  • Martingale System
  • Proportional Betting
  • Fixed Amount Betting
  • Fibonacci Sequence

And many more. These have little to nothing to do with betting on football, however. Instead, they simply follow a system of adjusting your bet based on your recent wins or losses. You can lower it, double it, keep the same bet or follow whatever pattern these systems deem best and most profitable.

They all have on thing in common, though: They don’t work.

Doubling your stake after a loss will not recoup your losses. You may win on your next bet, but none of these system can actually guarantee that.

How much you bet and whether or not you adjust your bet should not depend on a win or loss. There are smarter ways to place your bets and we’re here to help you with those.

How to bet smarter

Let’s be real here: if you bet on football, you bet to win.

Nobody wants to place a bet with the expectation that it will lose. However, you should always be prepared for that scenario. And it should inform any betting strategies you employ. As such, your first smart move when placing football bets is this:

  • Prepare to lose

Anyone looking into betting systems or football betting strategies is in it for the long run. You want to increase your chances of winning not just for one match or five. You want to consistently return a profit. That requires dedication.

There’s nothing wrong with that just as long as you

  • Know your limits

This means your budget limits, your betting limits, your time limits. What does that mean in particular?

  • Set a limit on losses and on your bet size
  • Assign a budget you can bet per session/day and stick to it
  • Set a limit on how long you spent on football betting each day/week

Next up, let’s talk about:

Managing your bankroll

Setting limits on your bet size, budget and losses is already a good start when managing your bankroll whilst betting on football.

Further to that, you should also:

  • Take your returns and don’t use them to bet again
  • Never bet your entire budget
  • Make a plan and stick to it: if you plan to bet 50% of your budget on a dozen different bets, stick to that and make no allowances just because you win or simply feel like it

Now that we have talked about time and money, let’s talk about more concrete things that will help you place winning bets.

Shop for best odds

Okay, we’re talking about money again, but it is smart to always get the best odds when betting on football. You may be signed up at two bookmakers, but can you be certain that either one of them consistently offers the highest odds available?

It’s better to compare and if you want to set your own odds, why not try a betting exchange such as Betfair and get someone to back them?

Better odds have a lower margin applied by the bookmaker, meaning your returns will be higher. That said, the best odds may be useless if the probability of an event transpiring are not reflected in those odds.

You also need to consider the value of a bet. A win of €100 on a €1,000 bet has no value. Whereas a win of €1,000 on a €100 bet is certainly desirable.

If you don’t want to shop around for the best bet lines yourself, use and odds comparison site. Or check our football betting tips to help you along.

Do your homework

Betting on football is much more than just crunching numbers, finding the best odds and setting a limit for your bets. You also need to know the sport and when placing a bet on a match, you should do your homework in advance.

Many sports betting sites will offer you at least some stats when you click on a match, showing you what both teams have recently been up to. You can also read our in-depth analysis of upcoming matches to give you a better idea of what to expect.

If you want to do your own research instead, be sure to cover the following:

  • The form of the teams and players: this includes recent performances, injuries, personal problems that may have made the news
  • Line-up for the next match – a football team is comprised of more than the 11 players usually on the green, so who is playing next?
  • Recent team wins and losses
  • Recent penalties
  • Are they playing at home or away?
  • Check the weather forecast? Much of football is played during the winter months and bad weather (heavy rain, sleet or snow) can affect a match.

The odds offered by bookmakers often take all these things into consideration as well. That still doesn’t mean that they are correct with their predictions or that the odds you get are good.

Be sure to do your research thoroughly to prepare as best as you can. It may only give your bets a small edge, but it’s an edge that won’t hurt your odds at winning.

Analysing your bets in the aftermath

It doesn’t matter whether you win or lose, once a bet is settled, it pays going back to it to analyse what went right and what may have gone wrong. You can learn from all the bets you have placed, especially with accumulator bets that has several legs it must stand on (just one failed bet will result in a loss, after all).

So, investigate your own bets, check what led you to go one way instead of another and be thorough when looking for mistakes.

It’s nice to simply celebrate a win, but if you want to experience that again, you should also use it as an opportunity to learn for the next time you place a similar bet. If a strategy proved successful, try it again to see whether it holds up.

Don’t forget to have fun!

It’s easy to forget to have fun when placing football bets. You’re analysing so many things, learning and researching that it becomes more of a cerebral activity than a simple way to have fun and entertain yourself.

So, make sure to enjoy the game when you watch it and don’t just watch the screen for your predictions to come through. That’s just an added benefit and you’re allowed to cheer a win.

If it is no longer a fun activity, you are doing it wrong. Sure, losing a bet is not great, especially if it means that your team has lost as well.

Remember our first rule: Be prepared to lose.

So what? Better luck next time!

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